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The EU expects increased agricultural exports.

According to the EU agricultural outlook the amount of agricultural land used for agricultural purposes will decrease. However, most arable crops are expected to increase their production according to the EU agricultural outlook report 2018-2030.

Slower pace

The report notes a decline of total agricultural land in the EU is to be expected between now and 2030, though at a slower pace than in the past decade. The area is estimated to decrease from 178 million ha in 2018 to 176 million ha in 2030. In line with this trend, main cereals, permanent grassland and permanent crops are set to further decline in the period to 2030. In contrast, land used for fodder will increase slightly, mostly driven by silage maize, reaching 22 million ha in 2030.

Cereals

The cereal production is predicted to continue growing, and reach 325 million t by 2030 (compared to 284 million t for 2018). This growth will be driven by an increase in industrial use of cereals, a small rise in feed demand, and export prospects. However, further growing will be restricted due to the limited potential for area expansion and slower yield growth. Prices are expected to remain fairly stable, with for example common wheat being at around €180 per t.

Oil and protein

No further growth is expected in the rapeseed crop area due to theopportunities and limits of biofuel policy after 2020. Soy bean is expected to expand in the EU, at a slower pace than most recently.

Over the outlook period, strong demand both for feed purposes and for human consumption will further drive production growth of soy beans and protein crops. This, together with yield improvements, will lead to a further increase in EU production. With a share of only 1.4 % of total agricultural land, the protein crop area will remain limited.

Feed demand

Over the outlook period, demand for feed should grow, mainly due to a further increase of poultry and dairy production. Total feed use should reach 275 million t in 2030 for the three types of compound feed (low, medium and high-protein content). Demand will however be higher for feed from locally produced, GM-free and organic crops.

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