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Brussels(Belgium)  ̶  There will be higher export demand for traditional European dairy products such as cheese as the world’s population and incomes increase. This is one of the conclusions drawn from the EU agricultural outlook presented in December 2018. 

Dairy

As the world’s consumer base grows due both to an increased population and rising incomes, demand for dairy is expected to rise. Global trade in this sector will however increase at a much slower rate than in the past decade, the EU predicts. Dominating markets will be the EU and New Zealand. By 2030, the EU could supply close to 35% of the global demand. This will focus more extensively on value-added products such as organic products or those with protected geographical indications.

Exports

EU exports of cheese, butter, skimmed milk powder, whole milk powder and whey powder are expected to grow on average by around 330,000 t of milk equivalen tper year. As for the EU market, close to 900,000 t of additional milk per year would be needed to satisfy its growth for traditional dairy products, which is mainly cheese. By contrast, European liquid milk consumption is expected to continue declining in the EU.

Production

EU milk production should experience a modest increase over 2018-2030, at 0.8% per yearon average. Production is estimated at 167 million t in 2018, and should reach182 million t by 2030. Finally milk yield should also increase by 2030, 17% above the level of 2017. However, it will be at a slower pace than in proceeding decades due to environmental constraints on further dairy production.

Influences

Campaigns promoting lower dairy product intake because of the climate and environmental footprint of livestock products, as well as an increase in lactose intolerance claims, will have a downwards influence on the consumption of dairy products. Growing consumption of convenient foods such as ready meals, burgers and frozen foodwill on the other hand result in a higher use of dairy ingredients, such as cheese.

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